This paper discusses the numerical and probabilistic modelling of the tunnel construction concerning some not yet completed sections of the Vienna U2 metro line. It presents the algorithm and results analysis of numerical simulation for the step-by-step tunnel construction using the New Austrian Tunnel Method (NATM) in a dense urban environment. The nature and magnitude of subsidence of the earth surface depending on a number of factors involved in the calculation scheme are determined, and all parameters of the stress-strain state of the system "tunnel - ground mass" are obtained. A methodology is proposed for determining reliability by the criterion of additional vertical subsidence of the ground surface which accompanies underground construction. By comparing the results of numerical modelling, empirical calculation and geotechnical monitoring of the metro construction site, it is shown that they correlate well enough with each other. The results of this study can be used to predict the level of the ground settlement during tunnelling works in areas of dense urban development.